\u3000\u3000\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u7279\u6717\u666e\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f3a\u5065\u3001\u7f8e\u80a1\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u662f\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5439\u5618\u8d44\u672c\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fdGDP\u5e74\u5316\u5b63\u73af\u6bd4\u589e\u957f3.2%\uff1b4\u6708\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u964d\u81f33.5%\u3002\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8fd8\u4e0d\u9519\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ecd\u80fd\u5b9e\u73b0GDP\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u662f\u8be5\u56fd\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u957f\u7684\u4e00\u8f6e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6269\u5f20\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u771f\u7684\u50cf\u7279\u6717\u666e\u9ad8\u547c\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u597d\u5230\u201c\u8ba9\u4e16\u754c\u5ac9\u5992\u201d\u5417\uff1f <\/p>\n

\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u6765\u770b\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6GDP\u7684\u589e\u901f\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u7684\u786e\u5927\u5e45\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9ad8\u589e\u901f\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u652f\u6491\uff0c\u5374\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6709\u4e9b\u7981\u4e0d\u8d77\u63a8\u6572\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n <\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \u7f8e\u56fd\u80fd\u627f\u53d7\u591a\u5c11\u5916\u90e8\u8d38\u6613\u73af\u5883\u6076\u5316\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\uff1f\u4ece\u9700\u6c42\u5c42\u9762\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5546\u54c1\u9500\u552e\u75b2\u5f31\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u597d\u5146\u5934\u3002 <\/p>\n \u4e2a\u4eba\u6d88\u8d39\u3001\u4f4f\u5b85\u6295\u8d44\u548c\u975e\u4f4f\u5b85\u6295\u8d44\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u62c9\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u52a8\u80fd\uff0c\u5bf9\u4eca\u5e74\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7f8e\u56fdGDP\u589e\u957f\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u4e0d\u523035%\uff0c\u662f2009\u5e74\u56db\u5b63\u5ea6\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u65b0\u4f4e\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u4e2a\u4eba\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\uff08PCE\uff09 \u7684\u589e\u901f\u840e\u7f29\u5c24\u5176\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u5e74\u5316\u5b63\u73af\u6bd4\u589e\u957f\u53ea\u67091.2%\u3002 <\/p>\n \u589e\u957f\u4e3b\u8981\u6765\u81ea\u54ea\u91cc\u5462\uff1f\u653f\u5e9c\u5f00\u652f\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u8d21\u732e\u4e8612.8%\uff08\u8054\u90a6\u652f\u51fa\u6301\u5e73\uff0c\u5dde\u4e0e\u5730\u65b9\u652f\u51fa\u5927\u589e\u652f\u6491\u9053\u8def\u5efa\u8bbe\u7b49\u57fa\u5efa\uff09\u3002\u4e0d\u5c11\u4eba\u5bf9\u503a\u52a1\u7684\u6269\u5f20\u5fc3\u5b58\u987e\u8651\uff0c\u201c\u65b0\u503a\u738b\u201dJeff Gundlach\u5c31\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u3002Gundlach\u57285\u670814\u65e5\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u76f4\u64ad\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u589e\u957f\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u503a\u52a1\u7684\u589e\u957f\u800c\u5df2\u3002 <\/p>\n \u5176\u5b9e\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u503a\u52a1\u8fd8\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u52a8\u529b\u3002\u51c0\u51fa\u53e3\u4e00\u6539\u4ee5\u5f80\u62d6\u7d2fGDP\u7684\u5e38\u6001\uff0c\u4e0a\u4e00\u6b21\u7f8e\u56fd\u51fa\u53e3\u5982\u6b64\u5f3a\u52b2\uff0c\u662f\u53bb\u5e74\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u6b63\u5f0f\u5f00\u542f\u4e92\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u7684\u524d\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6\uff08\u5f88\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u957f\u4e45\u7684\u589e\u957f\u70b9\uff09\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n \n <\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u5c40 <\/p>\n \u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u52a8\u529b\u662f\u5e93\u5b58\uff08\u8d21\u732e\u4e8620.3%\u7684\u589e\u901f\uff09\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u4f01\u4e1a\u50a8\u5907\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u672a\u6765\u589e\u957f\u7684\u7a7a\u95f4\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u5230\u9650\u5236\u3002 <\/p>\n \u518d\u6765\u770b\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u76ee\u524d\u786e\u5b9e\u6709\u7740\u53f9\u4e3a\u89c2\u6b62\u7684\u4f4e\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e0d\u5728\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u7edf\u8ba1\u53e3\u5f84\u5185\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u5e74\u9f84\u7fa4\u4f53\u4ecd\u7136\u76f8\u5bf9\u5e9e\u5927\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u524d\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n \n <\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \u4f4e\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4e0b\uff0c\u52b3\u5de5\u77ed\u7f3a\u771f\u5b9e\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u4e86\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u8fd0\u4f5c\u3002\u4ee5\u4eba\u624b\u77ed\u7f3a\u6700\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u660e\u5c3c\u82cf\u8fbe\u5dde\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u4e00\u9879\u9762\u5bf9500\u540d\u660e\u5c3c\u82cf\u8fbe\u5dde\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u4f01\u4e1a\u7684\u8c03\u67e5\u663e\u793a\uff0c3\u6708\uff0c\u660e\u5dde\u6709\u5c06\u8fd150%\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u53cd\u9988\u79f0\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u62db\u5230\u5408\u683c\u7684\u5de5\u4eba\u5df2\u7ecf\u4f24\u53ca\u516c\u53f8\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u800c76%\u7684\u4e61\u6751\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u7ba1\u7406\u8005\u79f0\uff0c\u52b3\u5de5\u77ed\u7f3a\u201c\u8ba9\u4e8b\u60c5\u66f4\u52a0\u96be\u529e\u201d\u3002 <\/p>\n \u8be5\u9879\u8c03\u67e5\u8986\u76d6\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u4e2d\u5c0f\u5236\u9020\u4f01\u4e1a\uff0c\u5ba2\u6237\u4e3b\u8981\u9762\u5bf9\u5317\u7f8e\u81ea\u8d38\u534f\u5b9a\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u4e2d\u7f8e\u95f4\u8d38\u6613\u5173\u7cfb\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0d\u5927\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f01\u4e1a\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u6e10\u8d8b\u8c28\u614e\uff0c\u9884\u671f\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6269\u5f20\u201d\u7684\u4f01\u4e1a\u6570\u76ee\u9510\u51cf\uff0c\u8f6c\u800c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c06\u6301\u5e73\u751a\u81f3\u8870\u9000\u3002 <\/p>\n \u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8868\u73b0\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u4f46\u6ca1\u6709\u201c\u597d\u5230\u96be\u4ee5\u7f6e\u4fe1\u201d\u3002\u503a\u52a1\u4e0d\u65ad\u6269\u5f20\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u660e\u663e\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u6682\u65f6\u53ef\u63a7\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u589e\u957f\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u96be\u4e0b\u5b9a\u8bba\u3002\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u5e02\u573a\u867d\u7136\u4e0d\u5982\u53bb\u5e74\u90a3\u4e48\u7d27\u5f20\uff08\u4eca\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf\u6708\u975e\u519c\u65b0\u589e\u4eba\u53e3\u4e3a20.5\u4e07\uff0c\u7565\u4f4e\u4e8e2018\u5e74\u768422.3\u4e07\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u7d27\u5f20\u5230\u4e86\u62db\u4e0d\u5230\u4eba\u7684\u5730\u6b65\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u5f71\u54cd\u4f01\u4e1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u589e\u957f\u3002\u975e\u519c <\/p>\n \u7f8e\u56fd\u80fd\u627f\u53d7\u591a\u5c11\u5916\u90e8\u8d38\u6613\u73af\u5883\u6076\u5316\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\uff1f\u4ece\u9700\u6c42\u5c42\u9762\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5546\u54c1\u9500\u552e\u75b2\u5f31\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u597d\u5146\u5934\u3002 <\/p>\n \u4e2a\u4eba\u6d88\u8d39\u3001\u4f4f\u5b85\u6295\u8d44\u548c\u975e\u4f4f\u5b85\u6295\u8d44\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u62c9\u52a8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u52a8\u80fd\uff0c\u5bf9\u4eca\u5e74\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7f8e\u56fdGDP\u589e\u957f\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u4e0d\u523035%\uff0c\u662f2009\u5e74\u56db\u5b63\u5ea6\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u65b0\u4f4e\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u4e2a\u4eba\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\uff08PCE\uff09\u7684\u589e\u901f\u840e\u7f29\u5c24\u5176\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u5e74\u5316\u5b63\u73af\u6bd4\u589e\u957f\u53ea\u67091.2%\u3002 <\/p>\n \u589e\u957f\u4e3b\u8981\u6765\u81ea\u54ea\u91cc\u5462\uff1f\u653f\u5e9c\u5f00\u652f\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u8d21\u732e\u4e8612.8%\uff08\u8054\u90a6\u652f\u51fa\u6301\u5e73\uff0c\u5dde\u4e0e\u5730\u65b9\u652f\u51fa\u5927\u589e\u652f\u6491\u9053\u8def\u5efa\u8bbe\u7b49\u57fa\u5efa\uff09\u3002\u4e0d\u5c11\u4eba\u5bf9\u503a\u52a1\u7684\u6269\u5f20\u5fc3\u5b58\u987e\u8651\uff0c\u201c\u65b0\u503a\u738b\u201dJeff Gundlach\u5c31\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u3002Gundlach\u57285\u670814\u65e5\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u76f4\u64ad\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u589e\u957f\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u503a\u52a1\u7684\u589e\u957f\u800c\u5df2\u3002 <\/p>\n \u5176\u5b9e\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u503a\u52a1\u8fd8\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u52a8\u529b\u3002\u51c0\u51fa\u53e3\u4e00\u6539\u4ee5\u5f80\u62d6\u7d2fGDP\u7684\u5e38\u6001\uff0c\u4e0a\u4e00\u6b21\u7f8e\u56fd\u51fa\u53e3\u5982\u6b64\u5f3a\u52b2\uff0c\u662f\u53bb\u5e74\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u6b63\u5f0f\u5f00\u542f\u4e92\u5f81\u5173\u7a0e\u7684\u524d\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6\uff08\u5f88\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u957f\u4e45\u7684\u589e\u957f\u70b9\uff09\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n \n <\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u5c40 <\/p>\n 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